A couple of weeks back, received a unique invitation from a dear friend Ian Pereira www.ianpereira.com an extremely talented & well known photographer heralding his turning the magic number, just when I was recovering from my long list of body damages over the past 6 months & wondering to myself if the year was going to be devoted to Doctors!

Though against doctor’s advice, decided to attend the Do; more from the perspective of wishing & participating in some enjoyment for the evening.

With the doctor’s & wife’s remonstrations ringing in my ears set out to the party, braving the Saturday traffic, reached the venue in Bandra!

And surprise……whilst there were the usual suspects, met up with a completely different set of people, some who had not met for the past couple of years. Whilst Ian had his friends, his son, a young strapping lad also had taken the liberty to invite his friends, making it a lovely mix of age. http://www.flickr.com/photos/91638357@N00/sets/72157606291686564/

Nursing a small drink, touched base with friends old & new on what was new in life for the past couple of months. Whilst the music went up & down, it was the lovely 70’s & 80’s that created a sense of nostalgia. Along with the conversation, since most of us were 40+ (not the jeetendra kind).

Finally staggering out (not me) we were pretty pleased with ourselves & promised to celebrate such events more often…..Since LIFE BEGINS AFTER 40!!!

Another mail on Oil from my good friend Mohan Pai

July 23, 2008
Never ones to let raw facts get in the way of a good story, a familiar line spouted by Americans these days is, ‘Why should the US curb energy consumption, when India and China are guzzling petrol and polluting the whole globe?’

From New York to Los Angeles, and everywhere in between, the chorus can be heard: ‘Blame India! Blame China!’

Well, brought to our attention by Wired, recent empirical data rubbish this argument and kick it to the curb. The state of California’s own statistics show that, in 2006, the state consumed 20 billion gallons of diesel and petrol as transportation fuel, a more than 50 per cent increase over the past two decades. But even more interestingly, 20 billion gallons a year tops the transportation fuel usage of the entire nations of China or India!

Chew on that for a while, and allow it to truly sink in: California alone uses more petrol and diesel for fuel that any other country in the world, save the United States as a whole, which used a whopping 136 billion gallons, or 44% of the world’s transportation fuel consumption.

Of course, listening to US politicians, talking heads and media reports, one wouldn’t know it. They constantly inundate us with stories of India and China and their rapid growth, and what it portends for the developed world. The two emerging Asian giants have been blamed for everything from food shortages to rising fuel prices to global warming.

But instead of worrying why Indians need two rotis per day rather than one, or why our rapid development has led to increased vehicles on India’s roads, perhaps it’s time for America to do some soul searching and ask a few questions of itself.

Isn’t it outrageous for a state with 36 million people to consume more transportation fuel than a nation of 1 billion, India, and still point the blame elsewhere?

The second question, how is this even possible? How can every 1 Californian consume more transportation fuel than 30 Indians?

It’s simple, really. In Asia, we utilise compressed natural gas, mass transportation, bicycles and our good old fashioned leather chappals to get around. In California, it’s not unusual for a family of four to have four vehicles, and for each member to drive his or her own separate way, every day!

Whereas the Indian railway system is the world’s envy for its efficacy and efficiency, trains are a thing of the past in the States, more of a novelty than anything else. Buses are used only as a last resort, and metros, subways and other urban forms of mass commute are practically non-existent in the Golden State, save San Francisco’s iconic streetcars. And even those are primarily tourist attractions.

The average American’s idea of ‘public transportation’ is sharing a taxi. Compare this with Mumbai, where an estimated 6 million people avail of the local trains each day, cramming one on top of another into packed compartments. Now, the discrepancy starts to make sense.

So next time you read of an environmentally conscious American preaching about India’s lack of a commitment to green-friendly practices, chances are, that the American is alone in his sports car, cruising the highways around Los Angeles, with the air conditioning on high. Then, picture that packed Virar-Churchgate local in Mumbai.

Text: Matthew Schneeberger.

Surprising I received two mails related to Oil today from a friend Mohan Pai, while some parts may seem far fetched, makes interesting read

Why the Dollar Bubble is about to Burst.

IRAN HAS REALLY DONE IT…more deadlier than the nuclear..

The Voice (issue 264 -) ran an article beginning, ‘ Iran has really gone and done it now. No, they haven’t sent their first nuclear sub in to the Persian Gulf . They are about to launch something much more deadly — next week the Iran Bourse will open to trade oil, not dollars but in Euros’ This apparently insignificant event has consequences far greater for the US people, indeed all for us all, than is imaginable.

Currently almost all oil buying and selling is in US-dollars through exchanges in London and New York . It is not accidental they are both US-owned.

The Wall Street crash in 1929 sparked off global depression and World War II. During that war the US supplied provisions and munitions to all its allies, refusing currency and demanding gold payments in exchange.

By 1945, 80% of the world’s gold was sitting in US vaults. The dollar became the one undisputed global reserve currency — it was treated world-wide as `safer than gold’. The Bretton Woods agreement was established.

The US took full advantage over the next decades and printed dollars like there was no tomorrow. The US exported many mountains of dollars, paying for ever-increasing amounts of commodities, tax cuts for the rich, many wars abroad, mercenaries, spies and politicians the world over. You see, this did not affect inflation at home! The US got it all for free! Well, maybe for a forest or two.

Over subsequent decades the world’s vaults bulged at the seams and more and more vaults were built, just for US dollars. Each year, the US spends many more dollars abroad that at home. Analysts pretty much agree that outside the US , of the savings, or reserves, of all other countries, in gold and all currencies — that a massive 66% of this total wealth is in US dollars!

In 1971 several countries simultaneously tried to sell a small portion of their dollars to the US for gold. Krassimir Petrov, (Ph. D. in
Economics at Ohio University ) recently wrote, ‘The US Government defaulted on its payment on August 15, 1971 . While popular spin told the story of `severing the link between the dollar and gold’, in reality the denial to pay back in gold was an act of bankruptcy by the US Government.’ The 1945 Breton Woods agreement was unilaterally smashed.

The dollar and US economy were on a precipice resembling Germany in 1929. The US now had to find a way for the rest of the world to believe and have faith in the paper dollar. The solution was in oil, in the petrodollar. The US viciously bullied first Saudi Arabia and then OPEC to sell oil for dollars only — it worked, the dollar was saved. Now countries had to keep dollars to buy much needed oil. And the US could buy oil all over the world, free of charge. What a Houdini for the US ! Oil replaced gold as the new foundation to stop the paper dollar sinking.

Since 1971, the US printed even more mountains of dollars to spend abroad. The trade deficit grew and grew. The US sucked-in much of the world’s products for next to nothing. More vaults were built.

Expert, C?(R)il??nn Nunan, wrote in 2003, ‘The dollar is the de facto world reserve currency: the US currency accounts for approximately two thirds of all official exchange reserves. More than four-fifths of all foreign exchange transactions and half of all world exports are denominated in dollars. In addition, all IMF loans are denominated in dollars.’

Dr Bulent Gukay of Keele University recently wrote, ‘This system of the US dollar acting as global reserve currency in oil trade keeps the demand for the dollar `artificially’ high. This enables the US to carry out printing dollars at the price of next to nothing to fund increased military spending and consumer spending on imports. There is no theoretical limit to the amount of dollars that can be printed. As long as the US has no serious challengers, and the other states have confidence in the US dollar, the system functions.’

Until recently, the US-dollar has been safe. However, since 1990 Western Europe has been busy growing, swallowing up central and Eastern Europe . French and German bosses were jealous of the US ability to buy goods and people the world over for nothing. They wanted a slice of the free cake too. Further, they now had the power and established the euro in late 1999 against massive US-inspired opposition across Europe , especially from Britain - paid for in dollars of course. But the euro succeeded.

Only months after the euro-launch, Saddam’s Iraq announced it was switching from selling oil in dollars only, to euros only — breaking the OPEC agreement.. Iran , Russia , Venezuela , Libya , all began talking openly of switching too — were the floodgates about to be opened?

Then aero planes flew into the twin-towers in September 2001. Was this another Houdini chance to save the US (petro) dollar and the biggest financial/economic crash in history? War preparations began in the US But first war-fever had to be created — and truth was the first casualty. Other oil producing countries watched-on.

In 2000 Iraq began selling oil in euros. In 2002, Iraq changed all their petro-dollars in their vaults into euros. A few months later,
the US began their invasion of Iraq .

The whole world was watching: very few aware that the US was engaging in the first oil currency, or petro-dollar war. After the invasion of Iraq in March 2003, remember, the US secured oil areas first. Their first sales in August were, of course, in dollars, again. The only government building in Baghdad not bombed was the Oil Ministry! It does not matter how many people are murdered — for the US , the petro-dollar must be saved as the only way to buy and sell oil - otherwise the US economy will crash, and much more besides.

In early 2003, Hugo Chavez, President of Venezuela talked openly of selling half of its oil in euros (the other half is bought by the US ). On 12 April 2003 , the US-supported business leaders and some generals in Venezuela kidnapped Chavez and attempted a coup. The masses rose against this and the Army followed suit. The coup failed. This was bad for the US .

In November 2000 the euro/dollar was at $0.82 dollars, its lowest ever, and still diving, but when Iraq started selling oil in euros,
the euro dive was halted. In April 2002 senior OPEC reps talked about trading in euros and the euro shot up. In June 2003 the US occupiers of Iraq switched trading back to dollars and the euro fell against the dollar again. In August 2003 Iran starts to sell oil in euros to some European countries and the euro rises sharply. In the winter of 2003-4 Russian and OPEC politicians talked seriously of switching oil/gas sales to the euro and the euro rose. In February 2004 OPEC met and made no decision to turn to the euro — and yes, the euro fell against the dollar. In June 2004 Iran announced it would build an oil bourse to rival London and New York , and again, the euro rose. The euro stands at $1.27 and has been climbing of late.

But matters this month became far, far worse for the US dollar. On 5th May Iran registered its own Oil Bourse, the IOB. Not only are they now selling oil in euros from abroad — they have established an actual Oil Bourse, a global trading centre for all countries to buy and sell their oil!

In Chavez’s recent visit to London ; he talked openly about supporting the Iranian Oil Bourse, and selling oil in euros. When asked in London about the new arms embargo imposed by the US against Venezuela , Chavez prophetically dismissed the US as ‘a paper tiger’.

Currently, almost all the world’s oil is sold on either the NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange, or the IPE, London ’s International Petroleum Exchange. Both are owned by US citizens and both sell and buy only in US dollars. The success of the Iran Oil Bourse makes sense to Europe , which buys 70% of Iran ’s oil. It makes sense for Russia , which sells 66% of its oil to Europe . But worse for the US , China and India have already stated they are very interested in the new Iranian Oil Bourse.

If there is a tactical-nuclear strike on - deja-vu - `weapons of mass destruction’ in Iran , who would bet against a certain Oil Exchange and more, being bombed too?

And worse for Bush. It makes sense for Europe , China , India and Japan– as well as all the other countries mentioned above — to buy and sell oil in Euro’s. They will certainly have to stock-up on euros now, and they will sell dollars to do so. The euro is far more stable than the debt-ridden dollar. The IMF has recently highlighted US economic difficulties and the trade deficit strangling the US– there is no way out.

The problem for so many countries now is how to get rid of their vaults full of dollars, before it crashes? And the US has bullied so
many countries for so many decades around the world, that many will see a chance to kick the bully back. The US cannot accept even 5% of the world’s dollars — it would crash the US economy dragging much of the world with it, especially Britain .

To survive, as the Scottish Socialist Voice article stated, ‘the US , needs to generate a trade surplus to get out of this one. Problem is it can’t.’ This is spot on. To do that they must force US workers into near slavery, to get paid less than Chinese or Indian workers. We all know that this will not happen.

What will happen in the US ? Chaos for sure. Maybe a workers revolution, but looking at the situation as it is now, it is more
likely to be a re-run of Germany post-1929, and some form of extreme-right mass movement will emerge…

Does Europe and China/Asia have the economic independence and strength to stop the whole world’s economies collapsing with the US ? Their vaults are full to the brim with dollars.

The US has to find a way to pay for its dollar-imperialist exploitation of the world since 1945.. Somehow, eventually, it has to
account for every dollar in every vault in the world.

Bombing Iran could backfire tremendously. It would bring Iran openly into the war in Iraq , behind the Shiite majority. The US cannot cope even now with the much smaller Iraqi insurgency. Perhaps the US will feed into the Sunni v Shiite conflict and turn it into a wider Middle-East civil-war.

However, this is so dangerous for global oil supplies. Further, they know that this would be temporary, as some country somewhere else, will establish a euro-oil-exchange, perhaps in Brussels .

There is one `solution’ — scrap the dollar and print a whole new currency for the US . This will destroy 66% of the rest of the world’s savings/reserves in one swoop. Imagine the implications? Such are the desperate things now swimming around heads in the White House, Wall Street and Pentagon.

Another is to do as Germany did, just before invading Poland in 1938. The Nazis filmed a mock Polish Army attack on Germany , to win hearts and minds at home. But again, this is a finger in the dam. So, how is the US going to escape this time? The only global arena of total superiority left is military. Who knows what horrors lie ahead. A new world war is one tool by which the US could discipline its `allies’ into keeping the dollar in their vaults.

The task of socialists today is to explain to as many as possible, especially our class, that the coming crisis belongs purely to
capitalism and (dollar) imperialism. Not people of other cultures, not Islam, not the axis of evil or their so-called WMDs. Their system alone is to blame.

The new Iranian Oil Bourse, the IOB, is situated in a new building on the free-trade-zone island of Kish , in the Persian Gulf . It’s
computers and software are all set to go. The IOB was supposed to be up and running last March, but many pressures forced a postponement.

Where the pressure came from is obvious. It was internationally registered on 5th May and supposed to open mid-May, but its opening was put off, some saying the oil-mafia was involved, along with much international pressure……………………….

In 2007 Crude was trad ed around 60 usd. Everyone knew dollar was getting weaker and weaker day by day. Th e n US with the help of their two NYMEX & IPE exchange started rising the price of crude by Future trading on crude (called speculation). Today crude is around 140 usd. It means whole world who were paying 60 usd, are now paying 140 usd, which means demand of dollar has gone upto 230% and dollar started rising again.

Over the last few months, sticking to a commitment made

“Solitude is an obstinate foe. The more you become friends with it, the more the enmity.”

A man eats two eggs each morning for breakfast. When he goes to the
grocery store he pays Rs. 6 a dozen. Since a dozen eggs won’t last a
week he normally buys two dozens at a time. One day while buying eggs he
notices that the price has risen to Rs. 7. The next time he buys
groceries, eggs are Rs. 7.5 a dozen.

When asked to explain the price of eggs the store owner says, “The price
has gone up and I have to raise my price accordingly”. This store buys 100
dozen eggs a day. He checked around for a better price and all the
distributors have raised their prices. The distributors have begun to buy
from the huge egg farms. The small egg farms have been driven out of
business. The huge egg farms sell 100,000 dozen eggs a day to
distributors. With no competition, they can set the price as they see fit.
The distributors then have to raise their prices to t he grocery stores.
And on and on and on.

Read the rest of this entry »

Never having had an opportunity to meet Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw in person, but having read about him over the last 30 years, it was with a feeling of India having lost a great man, that one read about his demise. Over the past fortnight I have read a lot about him but an article that came through, made a lot of sense & whilst knowing that it would make no difference whatsoever to the powers be, I thought of sharing it -

“ The highest compliment was,in my view,paid to him by a Pakistani resident of Karachi .He stated that he admired the Field Marshall for attacking Karachi in 1971 every morning to take control of the harbour and for destroying the air force in East Pakistan over a week-end.The Pakistani added that if a Hindu had been in Sam Maneksha’s place,with his misgivings and diffidence about fighting wars despite the population-size,money and ammunition being very much in his favour,the 1971 war would have been as inconclusive as the 1947 and 1965 wars.

Read the rest of this entry »